About This Model

Season Pass FOMO Structure - Bayesian Analysis Results

Analysis of 1,085,660 Destiny 2 Steam Reviews

🚨 Statistical Finding (MOST HARMFUL ACROSS BOTH GAMES)

Measured effect: -5.8% per 1,000 hours

β₁ = -0.060 (decreases recommendation likelihood)

Sample: 41 reviews | WORST effect across all 11 models

📊 Key Numbers

41 reviews specifically mention season pass / battle pass frustrations
Effect size: -5.8% per 1,000 hours (MOST HARMFUL monetization measured)
Comparison: 2.1x worse than Silver (-4.2%), 6.4x worse than Grind (-0.9%)
Context: Warframe Battle Pass showed +344% (n=2, unreliable) vs Destiny 2's -5.8% (41 reviews)

Interpretation:

Battle Pass shows the STRONGEST negative effect across both games (β₁=-0.060, -5.8% per 1k hours). This is 2.1x more harmful than Silver, 6.4x worse than Grind. The severe negative coefficient indicates FOMO-driven seasonal structure creates profound dissatisfaction that compounds with veteran experience. Unlike Warframe's neutral/positive battle pass (n=2, unreliable), Destiny 2's implementation drives measurable player resentment.

Why Most Harmful?

Double Paywall: $40 expansion + $10-20 season = $60+ per season to stay current
Weapon FOMO: New weapons locked to battle pass, unavailable for 8+ months post-season
Scheduled Pressure: 10-20 tiers/week cap forces mandatory weekly play to reach rewards
Cumulative Cost: $150-200/year for Destiny 2 vs $60-100 for Warframe
FOMO by Design: System deliberately creates fear of missing out - miss weeks = fall behind permanently

Bottom Line:

MOST HARMFUL mechanic measured (-5.8%). FOMO works for re-engagement but creates severe satisfaction problems. Contrast to Warframe's battle pass approach shows seasonal pressure drives resentment.

📊 Statistical Analysis - Four Panel Breakdown

Panel 1: Probability Curve

STEEPEST downward slope across all 11 models - -5.8% per 1k hours, most harmful mechanic.

Panel 2: Effect Estimate

β₁ = -0.060, largest negative effect - FOMO design drives measurable resentment.

Panel 3: Playtime Distribution

41 reviews showing frustration across all experience levels - FOMO affects casuals and veterans equally.

Panel 4: Residuals

Near-perfect fit confirms universal negative pattern among players mentioning season pass.

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Destiny 2 — Battle Pass (Season Pass)