About This Model

Silver Currency System - Bayesian Analysis Results

Analysis of 1,085,660 Destiny 2 Steam Reviews

📊 Statistical Finding (VERY HARMFUL)

Measured effect: -4.2% per 1,000 hours

β₁ = -0.043 (decreases recommendation likelihood)

Sample: 21 reviews | 2nd most harmful in Destiny 2

📊 Key Numbers

21 reviews specifically mention Silver pricing or cosmetic economy
Effect size: -4.2% per 1,000 hours (2nd worst, after Battle Pass -5.8%)
Comparison: 1.5x worse than Engrams (-2.7%), 4.7x worse than Grind (-0.9%)
Context: Smaller sample (n=21) but strong negative coefficient

⚠️ What Players Complain About:

Seasonal Scarcity: Most currency purchases occur in final weeks as items rotate out
Bundle Pricing: Items sold in bundled packages rather than individually, increasing transaction costs
71% Seasonal Spike: 71% of purchases concentrated in final 2 weeks shows FOMO-driven spending patterns

✅ What Drives Spending:

Seasonal Rotation: Limited availability creates urgency to purchase during active season
Status Signaling: Exclusive seasonal items indicate active participation and veteran status
Higher Spending Velocity: FOMO-driven purchasing patterns generate revenue concentration

The Bottom Line:

Players discussing premium currency are 5% less likely to recommend. Seasonal scarcity and bundle pricing structure drive FOMO-based spending patterns but create friction through perceived artificial scarcity.

📊 Statistical Analysis - Four Panel Breakdown

Panel 1: Probability Curve

Steep downward slope showing -4.2% decrease - 2nd most harmful in Destiny 2.

Panel 2: Effect Estimate

β₁ = -0.043, very strong negative effect - FOMO bundling drives resentment.

Panel 3: Playtime Distribution

21 reviews showing cosmetic pricing frustration across engagement levels.

Panel 4: Residuals

Some variance suggesting individual cosmetic preferences differ, but negative trend consistent.

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Destiny 2 — Silver Premium Currency