About This Model

DLC Expansion Lock-Out - Bayesian Analysis Results

Analysis of 1,085,660 Destiny 2 Steam Reviews

📊 Statistical Finding (SLIGHTLY HARMFUL)

Measured effect: -0.9% per 1,000 hours

β₁ = -0.009 (decreases recommendation likelihood)

Sample: 198 reviews | 5th of 6 in Destiny 2 severity

📊 Key Numbers

198 reviews specifically mention DLC expansion pricing or content gating
Effect size: -0.9% per 1,000 hours (mild negative, same as Warframe Platinum)
Comparison: Much milder than Battle Pass (-5.8%) or Silver (-4.2%)
Largest sample: Most reviews (n=198) suggests DLC is frequently discussed

Interpretation:

DLC shows mild negative effect (β₁=-0.009, -0.9% per 1k hours), ranking 5th of 6 in Destiny 2 severity. Despite 198 reviews (largest sample), the effect is relatively small - comparable to Warframe's Platinum pricing. This suggests DLC pricing creates some friction but is buffered by perceived content value. Still negative unlike Warframe's neutral Story effect.

Why Slightly Harmful?

Expansion Paywall: $40 expansions lock exotic weapons and story content behind payment
F2P Conversion Issues: Hybrid model creates unclear value proposition for free players
Content Gating: Viable builds require DLC-exclusive exotics for 2-3 months post-launch
Cumulative Costs: DLC + Season Pass + cosmetics total $150-200/year

✅ What Mitigates It:

Substantial Content: DLCs include meaningful campaigns, strikes, and exotic weapons
Story Quality: Expansion narratives are well-received, providing clear value
Large Sample (n=198): Most discussed monetization, yet mild effect suggests acceptance

Bottom Line:

Mild harm at -0.9%. DLC pricing creates friction but content quality buffers dissatisfaction. Still negative, reflecting Destiny 2's overall monetization pattern.

📊 Statistical Analysis - Four Panel Breakdown

Panel 1: Probability Curve

Mild downward slope showing -0.9% decrease - content value buffers pricing friction.

Panel 2: Effect Estimate

β₁ = -0.009, smallest negative in D2 despite 198 reviews - perceived content value mitigates.

Panel 3: Playtime Distribution

198 reviews (largest sample) showing consistent mild frustration across veterans.

Panel 4: Residuals

Good fit confirming universal mild negative - content quality softens impact.

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Destiny 2 — DLC Expansion Model