Destiny 2 — Engram System
About This Model
Engram RNG System - Bayesian Analysis Results
Analysis of 1,085,660 Destiny 2 Steam Reviews
📊 Statistical Finding (HARMFUL EFFECT)
Measured effect: -2.7% per 1,000 hours
β₁ = -0.028 (decreases recommendation likelihood)
Sample: 58 reviews mentioning engrams specifically
📊 Key Numbers
- 58 reviews specifically mention engram RNG or loot frustrations
- Effect size: -2.7% per 1,000 hours (3rd most harmful in Destiny 2)
- Ranking: Less harmful than Battle Pass (-5.8%) and Silver (-4.2%), more than Grind (-1.2%)
- Pattern: All Destiny 2 monetization shows negative effects (contrast to Warframe's mixed)
Interpretation:
Engrams show a moderate negative effect (β₁=-0.028, -2.7% per 1k hours). This ranks as the 3rd most harmful mechanic in Destiny 2, behind Battle Pass and Silver but ahead of Grind/DLC/Story. The negative coefficient indicates RNG frustration grows with veteran status - players accumulate duplicate exotic experiences and perceive the system as unrewarding.
Why Harmful?
- Duplicate Frustration: Repeated exotic drops feel like wasted effort and broken RNG
- Hidden Protection: Bad luck protection exists but isn't visible - perceived fairness suffers
- Power Level Treadmill: Engrams drop at current power ±1-2, forcing specific activity sequences
- Seasonal Resets: Progress resets each season, making farming feel temporary and pointless
Bottom Line:
Moderate harm at -2.7%. Engram RNG creates measurable dissatisfaction, especially for veterans. Perception of broken systems outweighs actual bad luck protection.
📊 Statistical Analysis - Four Panel Breakdown
Panel 1: Probability Curve
Downward slope showing -2.7% decrease per 1,000 hours - 3rd most harmful in D2.
Panel 2: Effect Estimate
β₁ = -0.028, moderate negative effect on recommendations with playtime.
Panel 3: Playtime Distribution
58 reviews showing RNG frustration grows with veteran experience.
Panel 4: Residuals
Good fit confirming consistent negative perception despite hidden bad luck protection.
Was this model helpful?