About This Model

Nightwave Battle Pass - Bayesian Analysis Results

Analysis of 230,410 Warframe Steam Reviews

⚠️ Statistical Finding (UNRELIABLE SAMPLE)

100% of players mentioning battle pass recommend the game

β₁ = +1.491 (increases by +344% per 1,000 hours)

Sample: ONLY 2 reviews | Average playtime: 55,808 hours

⚠️ CRITICAL WARNING: Sample size too small (n=2) for reliable statistical conclusions. Effect size may be spurious.

📊 Key Numbers

2 reviews specifically mention Nightwave battle pass
Average player experience: 55,808 hours (extremely veteran players)
Recommendation rate: 100% (2/2 positive)
95% CI: Extremely wide [-774.25, 777.23] - crosses zero dramatically

Interpretation:

With only 2 reviews mentioning Nightwave, no statistical conclusions can be drawn. The massive coefficient (β₁=+1.491) and absurdly wide confidence interval (±775 units) reflect extreme statistical uncertainty. Both reviewers were ultra-veterans (55k+ hours) who recommended the game, but this tells us virtually nothing about the battle pass's actual impact on the broader player base.

Why Unreliable?

Sample Size Crisis: n=2 cannot support regression analysis - need minimum 30+ for reliable estimates
Selection Bias: Only ultra-veterans (55k hours) mentioned it - not representative of typical players
Confidence Interval Explosion: CI spans ±775 units, rendering the point estimate meaningless
Cannot Generalize: Two positive reviews tell us nothing about causality or broader sentiment

Bottom Line:

Insufficient data for analysis. Nightwave is rarely mentioned in reviews (2/230,410 = 0.0009%), suggesting it's either non-controversial or players don't prioritize discussing it. The positive effect size is statistically meaningless.

📊 Statistical Analysis - Four Panel Breakdown

Panel 1: Probability Curve

Only 2 data points - curve is meaningless statistical artifact.

Panel 2: Effect Estimate

β₁ = +1.491 with absurdly wide CI [-774, +777] - statistically meaningless with n=2.

Panel 3: Playtime Distribution

Two ultra-veteran players (55k hours each), both recommended - cannot generalize.

Panel 4: Residuals

With 2 data points, residual analysis is not applicable.

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Warframe — Battle Pass (Nightwave)